Tommy Thompson drops out of the race

Former Wisconsin Governor, Tommy Thompson, dropped out of the republican race for President earlier today.

"I felt my record as Governor of Wisconsin and Secretary of Health and Human Services gave me the experience I needed to serve as President, but I respect the decision of the voters," Thompson said.

Tommy Thompson was a long time governor of Wisconsin and former Secretary of Health and Human Services to the current Bush Administration.

The biggest impact his withdraw will have is where his top national strategist, Steve Grubbs (very highly regarded in the GOP) will go. We will keep you up to date on where Steve Grubbs ends up. It is very possible he could find himself on either an expanding Huckabee campaign or the possible new campaign team of Fred Thompson if he does decide to join the race.

Stay tuned to RepublicanRace08.com as we continue to cover Duncan Hunter's future decision and the possible addition of Fred Thompson.

Republican Candidate Rankings after the Ames Straw Poll

They just came out, but we were prepared for all scenarios!

1. Mitt Romney
Romney spent an unbelievable amount of money to lock in the win of the straw poll and it worked. He received 31.6% which is just one tenth of a point above what George W. Bush scored in 1999. More importantly than the win, he seems to have made a very good impression on voters Iowa. It seems they like his regular man-"guy's guy" persona. Even though that is not what he is, they have bought into it. He has the top spot and we'll see how this carries into New Hampshire and the oh so important South Carolina primary.

2. Mike Huckabee

We predicted a big day for the Huckabee campaign who had an unbelievable amount of momentum going into Saturday. He came out strong and did not disappoint.
Despite spending less than a 1/6th of the money Mitt Romney had spent in Iowa, Huckabee picked up a little more than half the votes Romney did and that is huge considering the time and money spent by each campaign. Mike definitely knows how to stretch a buck!
If Huckabee doesn't win the nomination he will definitely be the first choice as a running mate and as being the second youngest candidate at 51, he would still have at least a few more opportunities at running for the White House and by then he would have a very recognizable name and a lot more money.



3. Fred Thompson
Today's outcome was not really all that significant to Fred Thompson, however it does start the clock on how much time he will have to get in the race.
With Huckabee finishing in second he will get much more media coverage and more importantly, more money. The main success of Thompson's numbers in the polls have came from the "dissatisfaction of the candidates" and "no real conservative". Those statements were made by voters talking about the so called "big three" in Giuliani, Romney and McCain. Now Huckabee will start to be named as a top tier candidate and he has a far more conservative record and platform than Fred Thompson. If Fred wants to be the GOP nominee he better throw his hat in within the next month. If not, his door will be slammed shut.



4. Rudy Giuliani
Why is Rudy in fourth? Because he just upset a lot of Iowan voters. If there is one thing Iowans can't stand, it's being ignored and made out to be unimportant. It's no secret Rudy is having problems gaining support in the south and when it comes down to him and Mitt, Romney comes off more appealing to southerns. Why does the south matter? South Carolina. Rudy Giuliani will not be able to win the nomination only winning New Hampshire out of the first big three (Iowa-first caucus of in the nation, New Hampshire-first primary in the nation, and South Carolina-the first primary in the south). He did not help himself at all on Saturday. If he does not shore up his weakness in Iowa, he can kiss the nomination good bye.




5. Sam Brownback
While there are no official reports out on it, it is believed that Sam Brownback spent the most money on the straw poll out of the "second tier" candidates and while it was not the most popular, he still had a lot of attractions and catered BBQ at his tent, which begs the question how many votes did Brownback buy?.
Brownback showed that he is still able to reign in the "Christian right", but it will be interesting to see if he continues his attacks on Huckabee and Romney, because those are the two that beat him.
One thing is for sure, after being the original favorite to move up from the second tier, his campaign has certainly not flourished as expected. (Just another case of how the national media has no idea about what they're talking about)
He now trails Huckabee, has Tancredo right on his tail and Ron Paul might even give him some trouble.



6. John McCain
McCain might have thought it was the right move to skip the straw poll, how ever it was a mistake. He is regarded a little better in the south, but not by much and he is still no where towards being electable in the south AND he is not looking to well in New Hampshire either. If there is a "top tier", John McCain is certainly not in it. He continues to fall in polls, popular opinion and declining performances in the debates and if you haven't noticed, he continues to fall in the rankings. His campaign has truly fallen apart and he would save a lot of people time and money if he would retire the Straight Talk Express and either stay on Capitol Hill or head back to a 55 and up facility in Arizona.



7. Tom Tancredo
Tom Tancredo continues to show a good bit of momentum himself. He has went from 0%-1% to being right on Sam Brownback's you know what! If he can transform his campaign into an actual Presidential campaign he might be able to set himself up for a cabinet position or who knows, maybe even to be a running mate.
Tancredo has gotten pretty far by a very strong stance on illegal immigration and very solid performances in the last two debates and a very good speech at the straw poll. He is looking more and more like a formidable candidate day by day.



8. Ron Paul
One thing was proven for Ron Paul today. His internet supporter and even grassroots presence at the straw poll did not turn into real votes.
And might I say... I told you so! Anyone who believed the "Ron Paul Revolution" was going to start today was finally proven that they were living a pipe dream after the votes were tallied. All we saw today was around 800 to 1,000 people march around the campus of Iowa State University embarrassing themselves and the party to a certain extent, on national telivison. Paul did get a little under half the votes that Huckabee got and less than a quarter of what Romney got.
His campaign will not end though. No, the Ron Paul Revolution must move on!



9. Duncan Hunter
Duncan Hunter was the only real candidate that finished behind Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani. This should end his campaign. He has not given any indication as to what he will do know, but the straw poll ended any realistic chances he had to make a run at anything. We will keep you updated as soon as we know the fate of the Hunter campaign. As stated in the rankings from the past week, he had been fairly quite in Iowa due to a very busy two weeks at his real job on Capitol Hill and that did cut into his campaign time in those final two weeks before the straw poll which probably cost him a few hundred votes.



10. Tommy Thompson
If Tommy sticks true to his word, he will end his campaign this week. Possibly, as soon as Monday.
He left the straw poll before the returns came in and has not been reached by any reporters as we know of at this time.
Again, we will keep you updated on the status of his campaign. But it would be awfully hard for him to spin a seventh place finish below Ron Paul.
Gov. Thompson is a good man and I personally wish him the best and would not mind seeing him back as the Secretary of Health in the near future.

What will happen Next?
- Mitt Romney will start to pick up ground in South Carolina and New Hampshie and he will start to plant many more roots in New Hampshire now.

-Huckabee and Brownback will go back to the fundraising trails. They have both proven they have the organizational skills and message to motivate voters. Now they will need money to continue to compete. Especially Huckabee, the straw poll was a huge move shifting momentum fully back to his side, but he will not be able to scape by with another $750,000 quarter. Everyone who "Likes Mike" better start chipping in on the tab!

-Guiliani will have to show the people of Iowa he really cares. Iowa will be vital to him and he has to win back some support.

-Fred Thompson will have to start making his decision. If he waits until late September that very well may be too late. Timing is key and he is officially on the clock.

- Tancredo and Paul both did decent in the straw poll. It was nothing special, but they both did well enough to stay in the race. Ron Paul's campaign will not likely change all that much. However Tom Tancredo's campaign could take on a different look with his stronger than expected showing.

-Tommy Thompson and Duncan Hunter should both bow out of the race. Tommy is a man of his word and I have no doubt that he will drop out this week, but Hunter never stated any such intentions. We will see his plan within the next few days.

2007 Ames Iowa Straw Poll Results

Here are the results from the 2007 Ames, Iowa GOP Straw Poll:

1. Mitt Romney –32 %
2. Mike Huckabee – 18 %
3. Sam Brownback – 15 %
4. Tom Tancredo – 14 %
5. Ron Paul – 9 %
6. Tommy Thompson — 7 %
7. Fred Thompson – 1 percent
8. Rudolph W. Giuliani – 1 %
9. Duncan Hunter – 1 %
10. John McCain (less than 1)
11. John Cox (less than 1)

Huckabee's Message is Right for South Carolina, Iowa, New Hampshire, and America

That quote came from former Governor of South Carolina David Beasley in today's Conference Call with Bloggers with Gov. Mike Huckabee.


We got a chance to actually get in two questions today...
Our first question was... Gov. Huckabee, Sam Brownback has recently launched an aggressive attack campaign on both Mitt Romney and yourself, to a lesser degree. And the Club for Growth has a distorted smear ad out against you. How do you feel about attacking other candidates in politics and what’s your personal opinion on the ad’s out against yourself and Gov. Romney? And do you think running your campaign with more integrity, on a positive message focusing on yourself rather than someone else, is why you have passed Senator Brownback and are doing so well in Iowa?
- Gov. Huckabee said "(Iowan voters) want to hear what’s great about America, not what's bad about another candidate." He said that it's important not to go out against another candidate in your party because “you have to eat your words months down the road if that person gets the nomination and then you have to act like that person is better than toothpaste". He said the he thinks a large part of the reason he has done so well in Iowa, is that Iowans like his positive message that focuses on him and not against another candidate.
Gov. Huckabee also said the attack ads just give further validation that his campaign his gaining huge momentum and that Washington and other candidates are trying to slow him down, but it is not working.
-Gov. Beasley also gave his opinions on the Club for Growths smear ad against Huckabee. "He’s Not a inside the beltway person and that's what they are against him(Huckabee)… that’s why we need a guy like Mike Huckabee" He also said, "Washington is trying to put out a message that America does not want to hear, but Gov. Huckabee is talking about what Americans think is important. The Club for Growth in Washington is not putting out a message like many of the Club for Growth members I know around the country, who have the same message as Gov. Huckabee."

And the second question was a lighter topic...
Gov. Huckabee, after seeing yourself in third in the ABC News/Washington Post poll and winning the debate and blowing away voters according to Dr. Frank Luntz, and even having Speaker Gingrich who is one of the most respected people in the party say everything he said. Have you gotten a chance to take a step back and actually think that you have a good shot of being on that stage in Saint Paul in September accepting the GOP nomination and if so how does that feel?
-He said that he hadn't had time to really think about and the campaign has been so focused at getting every possible vote on Saturday it has been a full steam ahead type deal. He did say that he knows he has to remember it's a long way until next September and he does have to remember that, but he seemed pretty excited about the idea of being on the stage in St. Paul accepting his parties nomination, but hey, who wouldn't?

Gov. Huckabee had stressed early in the debate about how much the people of Iowa like his message saying “We’ve used minimal resources to pass those who are using millions of dollars” and seemed very please with the status of his campaign.
Gov. Beasley said that Mike has out ran the big money candidates by "pounding the pavement in Iowa" and getting his message into every home in Iowa. Not through their TV, but through their door. "He takes the time to give his consistent message and consistent record to all the people in Iowa".

Gov. Huckabee seems very excited about this Saturday and think that "history will be made there". The Huckabee campaign will have a action packed day including two scheduled performances of Capitol Offense "the best band in politics" and also Watermelon for everyone from Mike's hometown of Hope, Arkansas. They will also be giving away a 100+ pound watermelon.

The candidate who currently holds the number two spot in the Republican Race '08 Rankings is looking to have a big day on Saturday.

Stay Tuned for more coverage all week long on the 2007 Ames Iowa Straw Poll.

Campaign Update -- One the beat for Wednesday August 8,2007

Just a brief update on each campaign three days before the Iowa - Ames Straw Poll.

Mitt Romney - Mitt is still being a victim of Brownback's whine tour through the primary states, Brownback has taken out a two minute television ad attacking Gov. Romney's record on abortion. It has not effected Romney though, he is still on top of the polls in Iowa and has even widened his margin from Giuliani who is trailing behing him in some polls.

Mike Huckabee - Mike is touring Iowa in his new ride, which is currently subject to a naming-contest on his website MikeHuckabee.com and his campaign undoubtedly has the most momentum heading into the Iowa Straw Poll on Saturday. Huckabee also signed up to attend and speak at the Midwest Republican Leadership Conference in Indianapolis, Indiana later this month. Huckabee also saw many kind words from former Speaker of the House and leader of the Republican take-over in 1994 and 1996, Newt Gingrich said Huckabee "Will catch on" Gingrich has a eye on how to win and this could be a little for shadowing of who might be the GOP nominee. Gingrich would not go as far as an endorsement because he will make his final decision on running in October.

Rudy Giuliani - It is not getting any easier for Rudy. In the last week Giuliani has been questioned about his Catholicism and then his own teenage daughter has come out in support of Barack Obama and has publicly influenced her friends to support Barack online on Facebook.

Fred Thompson - Suspicion of Fred jumping in the race is growing higher and higher and just this week Thompson upgraded his website ImWithFred.com which looks like a Presidential campaign if I've ever seen one. Fred will be on the ballot at the Iowa Straw Poll, but will not be speaking at the event. As mentioned in the ranking this week, the results of the poll could effect his chances in joining the race.

John McCain - McCain continues to watch candidates pass him in the polls. Fred Thompson and Mike Huckabee have both leaped over McCain since the race started early this year and both Tom Tancredo and Sam Brownback are closing in on him. He has not had hardly anything fall his way in the last month. He will not be participating in the Straw Poll, but his name will be on the ballot. In 1999 he did not do well at all in the Straw Poll when he only pulled in around 5% of the vote. This go around his campaign is in much worse shape and he is not even expected to pull in 5% at the Straw Poll on Saturday.

Tom Tancredo - Congressman Tancredo has been spending his time away from Washington wisely and is another candidate who has been burning up the road. Yesterday his campaign focused on Northwest Iowa and his campaign trail will start to make it's way towards Ames for Saturday. Tancredo has said he faces the reality that if he does not finish in the top half that he will likely not have much of an option to continue. Tancredo said, “I think you do have to be in the top half of the group. I mean I just don't see any way that you can really go forward here. The money starts to dry up. It is the first part of the whittling down process."

Duncan Hunter - Congressman Hunter has been very busy on Capitol Hill working on the case of the two border patrol officers who are serving a "harsh" sentence for basically doing their jobs and he is currently working on a rare Congressional Pardon for them. Hunter's presidential campaign has been pretty quite as of late because of this. We'll see how and if this will effect him in the Straw Poll on Saturday.

Sam Brownback - Brownback has continued his attack campaign towards Mitt Romney and also Mike Huckabee to a lesser degree. Brownback said he thinks he is in a "good" position going into the Straw Poll on Saturday. At a speech in Sioux City he said “I’ve classified myself all along as a tortoise in this race, and I think we look pretty good. I’ve been crawling and moving forward. I don’t know how it’s going to come out but I do think, particularly on our side of the aisle, the time is set for a dark horse candidate to come forward." If Sam Brownback is a "tortoise" I think I speak for most of use when I say go back into your shell! I do agree with him on one thing, A dark house candiate will come forward, but it will not be Senator Brownback.

Tommy Thompson - Many websites including this one are predicting Tommy Thompson to be the first candidate to drop out after the Straw Poll on Saturday. Like Huckabee, Tancredo, Hunter and Brownback, Tommy Thompson has dumped almost all of his resources into the Iowa Straw Poll and according to his numbers in Iowa polls he should do the worst out of these candidates and will probably finish either 9th or 10th. And if he does, his campaign will be over within the next week and a half.

Ron Paul - Congressman Paul has taken out a few 30 sec. television ads in Des Moines, Sioux City and Cedar Rapids. The ads focus on his fiscal conservative record and push for a return to a drastically smaller government with significantly less power, pulling all troops from Iraq and returning to the constitution. If it were only that easy... Most of Dr. Paul's proposals sound great in theory, but when they are rebutted are shrunk down to ideas that would not work in reality. It will be very interesting to see how Ron Paul fairs in the Straw Poll and it will be a make or break point for the legitimacy of his campaign. He may not drop out of the campaign after a bad showing, but his campaign would lose any credibility it ever had of him winning the Republican nomination. Paul has still not proven he can show well with out his "internet cronies" behind him texting messaging or voting online for him. This will be one of the more interesting story lines on Saturday, either way.

Stay tuned all weekend for Straw Poll Coverage.

We're Back and ready to Rank... New Republican Rankings for August 7, 2007... Where do they stand?

Well it's been a while and definitely a long time since the last promised update in rankings. Most of you already know the major changes that have taken place since the last ranking came out. Just for a brief overview of the two biggest happenings...
- John McCain had a major meltdown in his campaign when three top campaign leaders, including the Campaign Manager and the Lead Strategist resigned from the campaign.
- Jim Gilmore dropped out of the race and no one has really missed him.

Now for the good stuff...

Republican Presidential Candidate Rankings as of August 7, 2008 (Pre-Ames Straw Poll)

1. Mitt Romney
Well Mitt's use of the almighty dollar puts him at the front of the pack in Iowa and for that case in the race itself. Romney has made sure he is not unknown going into the straw poll. But is Mitt really how Iowa wants? Polls have shown that Romney's message has just not spoke loudly in Iowa. Not nearly as much as his name and face. Lets face the facts, Mitt Romney cleans up well and is an extremely good public speaker and puts out a great image on television looking like a family man who is just another average American, the only part of that, that will come back to bit him is in the Straw Poll and Caucus the voters get to see the candidates in real life and in real life Mitt does not come off anywhere as good as he does on television. Money and popularity have gotten Romney to the top spot, but it is not likely that he will take Iowa just to the fact that Iowans have through out history filtered the phonies out of the race. And that's all Romney is. A pretty talking head phony.

2. Mike Huckabee
Mike Huckabee has been on an unbelievable tear as of late. It looked as if he was about to take a big hit after the second quarter fundraising figures came out. Huckabee had finished in the bottom 3 of Republicans and it looked like his campaign was about to go into panic mode. However Mike had different plans. Just as the name of his latest book, his campaign has risen From Hope to Higher Ground. After the ABC News debate from Iowa it seems as if Huckabee has an excellent chance at not only placing highly at the straw poll, but even winning the poll in Ames. During the Iowa/ABC News Debate Dr. Frank Luntz (one of the nations top political pollsters) used the new real-time dial technology that let's voters give an immediate feedback to what they think about what the candidate is saying. Dr. Luntz said that Huckabee's numbers went through the roof when attacked the Suadi royal family and their involvement and funding of terrorism with money coming from US oil revenue and that America needs to be independent on energy within 10 years. Read this small portion of a Politico.com article...

"At the session’s start, only one participant picked Huckabee as the candidate he or she wanted to win. Nine chose former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, eight were for former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, five were for the absent Fred Thompson, two were for McCain, and the remaining candidates were picked by one or none.
But when it was over, Huckabee had 14 votes, compared with 10 for Romney, three for Giuliani, one for Fred Thompson and one for Rep. Duncan Hunter of California."
Check out the entire article by clicking here.
This is all great news for the Huckabee camp and he is an a great position to be catapulted to the front of the pack after the Iowa Straw Poll this Saturday.

3-t. Rudy Giuliani
The man who started out the campaign as the favorite to sweep through the primaries with out much resistance has had a much rougher time than expected and has fallen from his top spot. He refuses to get down and play primary politics. Giuliani seems to think that meeting voters one on one in Iowa and even on a big scale by way of the Ames Straw Poll and the September YouTube debate is too much work for him and not enough gain. Not only has Giuliani lost hundreds of thousands of potential votes by trying to play primary politics on a national level, he has alienated much of his support in Iowa which is THE most important state in the primaries for Republicans. Does anyone else remember what happened to the last big name candidate who tried to take his campaign to a national level months in advance and then got blown out in the primaries?
It was only four years ago when just that happened to the democrats original favorite, Howard Dean. Dean had money, a popular name, a message that many democrats were in too and so he thought he could skip the entire primary process that has elected our Presidents all through out history and get a seventh month head start on the general election.
I believe Rudy Giuliani will be wishing he would have learned the phrase "If you don't learn history, you are doomed to repeat it." Because it seems like Mayor Giuliani is totally clueless as to what is about to happen to his campaign in the primary states. And that is fail.

3-t. Fred Thompson
Time is running out for Fred Thompson. All depending on how the Ames Iowa Straw Poll turns out he could find himself losing a lot of his popularity. His name being on the ballot may actually hurt him. If he does not finish in the top two and loses to some one who is not Rudy Giulian or John McCain (which is very likely) he will begin to slip as "the candidate everyone wants". If Mike Huckabee wins the Straw Poll it will likely end the chances of Fred Thompson entering the campaign as the favorite. Right now he thrives on being the "true conservative" which is nothing but a myth. A Huckabee win at the Straw Poll would undoubtedly put Mike in the "top tier" and all it would take to find out that Huckabee is much more conservative than Fred is a few minutes on the internet. Not to mention Huckabee beats him out on experience and record. If Fred Thompson wants to be the Republican nominee, he better hope Huckabee has a bad showing at the Ames Straw Poll or he better jump in the race and try to spin his weak record to people. If he does not, his campaign will be nothing but a "what if" by the end of the month.

5. John McCain
As you saw above, McCain's campaign has taken hit, after hit, after hit and it is really starting to show. He has been declared the loser of ever debate, except for the first according to Dr. Frank Luntz, the Fox News pollster mentioned earlier in the rankings. It seems like Immigration (which if you might remember Republican Race '08 predicted it spoiling his chance at winning the nomination) has destroyed his campaign. He too has decided to skip the Iowa Straw Poll this Saturday, but his campaign had no real shot at showing well in the poll and so he backed out to have a reason for his poor showing. He did not fair well in 1999 in the Iowa Straw Poll and that was the beginning of the end of his presidential hopes in '99 and here we are in 2008 and we are near the end of the end of his presidential campaign this year. And once again the Iowa Straw Poll will show how little his support he really has.

6. Tom Tancredo
Who ever thought Tancredo would make it this far? In the last ranking he was ranked dead last behind Jim Gilmore. He has made a surge taking bold stances on not only immigration, but has widened his spectrum to taxes, Congresses high spending and even has a better grip on foreign policy and the War on Terror and Iraq. He has became more and more popular and is now the leader of "the new second tier" and he had an excellent 2nd quarter in fundraising and has used it to get his name out in Iowa. All depending on his showing in the Ames Straw Poll, Congressman Tancredo could be positioning him self as a leading candidate to be the VP nominee.



7. Duncan Hunter
Duncan Hunter has remained a solid name in the "second tier", but he hasn't really picked up a lot of ground. He did not perform well in fundraising and is not really gaining popularity, but he has been staying in about the same place in polls (around 6th-8th)
He has had two great showings at the last two debates and is still impressing and surprising people, but just like all the other candidates he will find out where it has put him in the eyes of the people after the Iowa Straw Poll.




8. Sam Brownback
Brownback has become the red headed step child of the group. He doesn't get any attention and in an attempt to get more attention he has constantly cried about other candidates and has on two attempts, blamed candidates for things they had nothing to do with (most recently the Huckabee camp for a supporters email). He has not been charming nearly as many Iowans as pundits thought he would. Instead he has become a big annoyance for everyone else in the race and has dropped into the attack mode attacking Romney, Giuliani and Huckabee and it has not helped him in the polls at all and according to Dr. Frank Luntz' real-time feedback dials voters have not liked what Sam Brownback has said about some of his fellow candidate and many did not approve of his campaigns attack phone calls to voters regarding Mitt Romney.

9. Tommy Thompson
Mr. Wisconsin is the only man who has remained in his post from the last ranking. Tommy has impressed many people on Health Care, if he would make that the main topic of his campaign he would probably be a lot higher in this ranking, but he has not played his card correctly and here he is, a spot away from dead last and only above Ron Paul.
Thompson has been performing better in the debates, but he still isn't "clicking" with voters and it shows. In most polls he is barely registering and in the ones he has he is no higher than 2%, with the exception of a few where voters mistake him for Fred Thompson.
Tommy's campaign will likely be over a week or two after the Straw Poll.

10. Ron Paul
Well I guess we'll see how many Ron Paul cronies read Republican Race '08! Dr. Paul has lost just about all credibility by resorting to the "neo-conservative" movement and take over of the Republican Party. That phase will end any chance he ever had of pulling an upset. It has been a phrase that has ended many "true conservatives" campaigns all across the nation in many republican states. Fact being you don't call your potential voters a name just about all of them hate to be called. You can not alienate voters and expect to win and Ron Paul has done just that. Alienated Republican voters. You would think a man as educated as Dr. Paul would know how to speak to voters, but yet he doesn't and that lands him in dead-last.


We will update the rankings after the Ames Straw Poll this Saturday. Please check back within the next day or two or subscribe by email (just put your email in the box above to the right and click submit) We will have new articles coming regularly.
To those of you who want to know... I have been moving to my new apartment, in a new state and that has consumed a lot of my time the last month and a half and I have not had a chance to hit the blog on a regular basis.
But Good News... I'M BACK and Republican Race '08 is back to being a regularly updated web site.

Stay tuned for the best coverage on the 2008 Republican Race for the White House!