Republican Candidate Rankings after the Ames Straw Poll

They just came out, but we were prepared for all scenarios!

1. Mitt Romney
Romney spent an unbelievable amount of money to lock in the win of the straw poll and it worked. He received 31.6% which is just one tenth of a point above what George W. Bush scored in 1999. More importantly than the win, he seems to have made a very good impression on voters Iowa. It seems they like his regular man-"guy's guy" persona. Even though that is not what he is, they have bought into it. He has the top spot and we'll see how this carries into New Hampshire and the oh so important South Carolina primary.

2. Mike Huckabee

We predicted a big day for the Huckabee campaign who had an unbelievable amount of momentum going into Saturday. He came out strong and did not disappoint.
Despite spending less than a 1/6th of the money Mitt Romney had spent in Iowa, Huckabee picked up a little more than half the votes Romney did and that is huge considering the time and money spent by each campaign. Mike definitely knows how to stretch a buck!
If Huckabee doesn't win the nomination he will definitely be the first choice as a running mate and as being the second youngest candidate at 51, he would still have at least a few more opportunities at running for the White House and by then he would have a very recognizable name and a lot more money.



3. Fred Thompson
Today's outcome was not really all that significant to Fred Thompson, however it does start the clock on how much time he will have to get in the race.
With Huckabee finishing in second he will get much more media coverage and more importantly, more money. The main success of Thompson's numbers in the polls have came from the "dissatisfaction of the candidates" and "no real conservative". Those statements were made by voters talking about the so called "big three" in Giuliani, Romney and McCain. Now Huckabee will start to be named as a top tier candidate and he has a far more conservative record and platform than Fred Thompson. If Fred wants to be the GOP nominee he better throw his hat in within the next month. If not, his door will be slammed shut.



4. Rudy Giuliani
Why is Rudy in fourth? Because he just upset a lot of Iowan voters. If there is one thing Iowans can't stand, it's being ignored and made out to be unimportant. It's no secret Rudy is having problems gaining support in the south and when it comes down to him and Mitt, Romney comes off more appealing to southerns. Why does the south matter? South Carolina. Rudy Giuliani will not be able to win the nomination only winning New Hampshire out of the first big three (Iowa-first caucus of in the nation, New Hampshire-first primary in the nation, and South Carolina-the first primary in the south). He did not help himself at all on Saturday. If he does not shore up his weakness in Iowa, he can kiss the nomination good bye.




5. Sam Brownback
While there are no official reports out on it, it is believed that Sam Brownback spent the most money on the straw poll out of the "second tier" candidates and while it was not the most popular, he still had a lot of attractions and catered BBQ at his tent, which begs the question how many votes did Brownback buy?.
Brownback showed that he is still able to reign in the "Christian right", but it will be interesting to see if he continues his attacks on Huckabee and Romney, because those are the two that beat him.
One thing is for sure, after being the original favorite to move up from the second tier, his campaign has certainly not flourished as expected. (Just another case of how the national media has no idea about what they're talking about)
He now trails Huckabee, has Tancredo right on his tail and Ron Paul might even give him some trouble.



6. John McCain
McCain might have thought it was the right move to skip the straw poll, how ever it was a mistake. He is regarded a little better in the south, but not by much and he is still no where towards being electable in the south AND he is not looking to well in New Hampshire either. If there is a "top tier", John McCain is certainly not in it. He continues to fall in polls, popular opinion and declining performances in the debates and if you haven't noticed, he continues to fall in the rankings. His campaign has truly fallen apart and he would save a lot of people time and money if he would retire the Straight Talk Express and either stay on Capitol Hill or head back to a 55 and up facility in Arizona.



7. Tom Tancredo
Tom Tancredo continues to show a good bit of momentum himself. He has went from 0%-1% to being right on Sam Brownback's you know what! If he can transform his campaign into an actual Presidential campaign he might be able to set himself up for a cabinet position or who knows, maybe even to be a running mate.
Tancredo has gotten pretty far by a very strong stance on illegal immigration and very solid performances in the last two debates and a very good speech at the straw poll. He is looking more and more like a formidable candidate day by day.



8. Ron Paul
One thing was proven for Ron Paul today. His internet supporter and even grassroots presence at the straw poll did not turn into real votes.
And might I say... I told you so! Anyone who believed the "Ron Paul Revolution" was going to start today was finally proven that they were living a pipe dream after the votes were tallied. All we saw today was around 800 to 1,000 people march around the campus of Iowa State University embarrassing themselves and the party to a certain extent, on national telivison. Paul did get a little under half the votes that Huckabee got and less than a quarter of what Romney got.
His campaign will not end though. No, the Ron Paul Revolution must move on!



9. Duncan Hunter
Duncan Hunter was the only real candidate that finished behind Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani. This should end his campaign. He has not given any indication as to what he will do know, but the straw poll ended any realistic chances he had to make a run at anything. We will keep you updated as soon as we know the fate of the Hunter campaign. As stated in the rankings from the past week, he had been fairly quite in Iowa due to a very busy two weeks at his real job on Capitol Hill and that did cut into his campaign time in those final two weeks before the straw poll which probably cost him a few hundred votes.



10. Tommy Thompson
If Tommy sticks true to his word, he will end his campaign this week. Possibly, as soon as Monday.
He left the straw poll before the returns came in and has not been reached by any reporters as we know of at this time.
Again, we will keep you updated on the status of his campaign. But it would be awfully hard for him to spin a seventh place finish below Ron Paul.
Gov. Thompson is a good man and I personally wish him the best and would not mind seeing him back as the Secretary of Health in the near future.

What will happen Next?
- Mitt Romney will start to pick up ground in South Carolina and New Hampshie and he will start to plant many more roots in New Hampshire now.

-Huckabee and Brownback will go back to the fundraising trails. They have both proven they have the organizational skills and message to motivate voters. Now they will need money to continue to compete. Especially Huckabee, the straw poll was a huge move shifting momentum fully back to his side, but he will not be able to scape by with another $750,000 quarter. Everyone who "Likes Mike" better start chipping in on the tab!

-Guiliani will have to show the people of Iowa he really cares. Iowa will be vital to him and he has to win back some support.

-Fred Thompson will have to start making his decision. If he waits until late September that very well may be too late. Timing is key and he is officially on the clock.

- Tancredo and Paul both did decent in the straw poll. It was nothing special, but they both did well enough to stay in the race. Ron Paul's campaign will not likely change all that much. However Tom Tancredo's campaign could take on a different look with his stronger than expected showing.

-Tommy Thompson and Duncan Hunter should both bow out of the race. Tommy is a man of his word and I have no doubt that he will drop out this week, but Hunter never stated any such intentions. We will see his plan within the next few days.

Campaign Update -- One the beat for Wednesday August 8,2007

Just a brief update on each campaign three days before the Iowa - Ames Straw Poll.

Mitt Romney - Mitt is still being a victim of Brownback's whine tour through the primary states, Brownback has taken out a two minute television ad attacking Gov. Romney's record on abortion. It has not effected Romney though, he is still on top of the polls in Iowa and has even widened his margin from Giuliani who is trailing behing him in some polls.

Mike Huckabee - Mike is touring Iowa in his new ride, which is currently subject to a naming-contest on his website MikeHuckabee.com and his campaign undoubtedly has the most momentum heading into the Iowa Straw Poll on Saturday. Huckabee also signed up to attend and speak at the Midwest Republican Leadership Conference in Indianapolis, Indiana later this month. Huckabee also saw many kind words from former Speaker of the House and leader of the Republican take-over in 1994 and 1996, Newt Gingrich said Huckabee "Will catch on" Gingrich has a eye on how to win and this could be a little for shadowing of who might be the GOP nominee. Gingrich would not go as far as an endorsement because he will make his final decision on running in October.

Rudy Giuliani - It is not getting any easier for Rudy. In the last week Giuliani has been questioned about his Catholicism and then his own teenage daughter has come out in support of Barack Obama and has publicly influenced her friends to support Barack online on Facebook.

Fred Thompson - Suspicion of Fred jumping in the race is growing higher and higher and just this week Thompson upgraded his website ImWithFred.com which looks like a Presidential campaign if I've ever seen one. Fred will be on the ballot at the Iowa Straw Poll, but will not be speaking at the event. As mentioned in the ranking this week, the results of the poll could effect his chances in joining the race.

John McCain - McCain continues to watch candidates pass him in the polls. Fred Thompson and Mike Huckabee have both leaped over McCain since the race started early this year and both Tom Tancredo and Sam Brownback are closing in on him. He has not had hardly anything fall his way in the last month. He will not be participating in the Straw Poll, but his name will be on the ballot. In 1999 he did not do well at all in the Straw Poll when he only pulled in around 5% of the vote. This go around his campaign is in much worse shape and he is not even expected to pull in 5% at the Straw Poll on Saturday.

Tom Tancredo - Congressman Tancredo has been spending his time away from Washington wisely and is another candidate who has been burning up the road. Yesterday his campaign focused on Northwest Iowa and his campaign trail will start to make it's way towards Ames for Saturday. Tancredo has said he faces the reality that if he does not finish in the top half that he will likely not have much of an option to continue. Tancredo said, “I think you do have to be in the top half of the group. I mean I just don't see any way that you can really go forward here. The money starts to dry up. It is the first part of the whittling down process."

Duncan Hunter - Congressman Hunter has been very busy on Capitol Hill working on the case of the two border patrol officers who are serving a "harsh" sentence for basically doing their jobs and he is currently working on a rare Congressional Pardon for them. Hunter's presidential campaign has been pretty quite as of late because of this. We'll see how and if this will effect him in the Straw Poll on Saturday.

Sam Brownback - Brownback has continued his attack campaign towards Mitt Romney and also Mike Huckabee to a lesser degree. Brownback said he thinks he is in a "good" position going into the Straw Poll on Saturday. At a speech in Sioux City he said “I’ve classified myself all along as a tortoise in this race, and I think we look pretty good. I’ve been crawling and moving forward. I don’t know how it’s going to come out but I do think, particularly on our side of the aisle, the time is set for a dark horse candidate to come forward." If Sam Brownback is a "tortoise" I think I speak for most of use when I say go back into your shell! I do agree with him on one thing, A dark house candiate will come forward, but it will not be Senator Brownback.

Tommy Thompson - Many websites including this one are predicting Tommy Thompson to be the first candidate to drop out after the Straw Poll on Saturday. Like Huckabee, Tancredo, Hunter and Brownback, Tommy Thompson has dumped almost all of his resources into the Iowa Straw Poll and according to his numbers in Iowa polls he should do the worst out of these candidates and will probably finish either 9th or 10th. And if he does, his campaign will be over within the next week and a half.

Ron Paul - Congressman Paul has taken out a few 30 sec. television ads in Des Moines, Sioux City and Cedar Rapids. The ads focus on his fiscal conservative record and push for a return to a drastically smaller government with significantly less power, pulling all troops from Iraq and returning to the constitution. If it were only that easy... Most of Dr. Paul's proposals sound great in theory, but when they are rebutted are shrunk down to ideas that would not work in reality. It will be very interesting to see how Ron Paul fairs in the Straw Poll and it will be a make or break point for the legitimacy of his campaign. He may not drop out of the campaign after a bad showing, but his campaign would lose any credibility it ever had of him winning the Republican nomination. Paul has still not proven he can show well with out his "internet cronies" behind him texting messaging or voting online for him. This will be one of the more interesting story lines on Saturday, either way.

Stay tuned all weekend for Straw Poll Coverage.

Republican Rankings - Post Debate - June 6

The rankings have changed, but in large part it had little to do with the candidates and a lot to do with the way CNN destroyed the New Hampshire debate. For your sake I won't rant about CNN's horrible job, but rather just give the updated rankings.

T-1. Rudy Giuliani (New York)
Giuliani had a strong debate. He is getting more and more polished on his answer to abortion and that's not good for any of his opponents. He made his share of laughter and also had a somber moment when addressing the sister of a fallen Army Lieutenant who was killed in Iraq and a Iraqi war veteran, and saying their sacrific will not be in vain. Overall it was an excellent night for Rudy and there were not many things that he could have done better.



T-1. Mitt Romney (Massachusetts)
Mitt Romney was in great form in the debate. He definitely benefited from CNN's botched debate, which gave him and the rest of Rudy McRomney superior camera time over the other seven candidates. Romney did a great job when he defined his faith. He didn't apologize or try to distance him self from his religion, The Church of the Later Day Saints (which is considered a denomination of Christianity). He had strong answers on Immigration and National Security. He also refused to give in to Wolf Blitzer who tried to pit Romney against McCain. Romney had a great debate and pushed himself even further up the ladder and we now show him in a tie with Rudy Giuliani for the top spot.

3. John McCain (Arizona)
McCain benefited the most out of the big three, from tonights debate. He had a true Presidential moment when talking about a fallen soldier in Iraq. McCain, who had a rough last couple of weeks healed some wounds and spent some time to defend the current immigration bill, basically saying that you have to compromise in Washington and even some of the most conservative Senators such as Saxby Chambliss and Johnny Isakson both of Georgia, realize that some compromises must be met to get reform accomplished. With considering CNN's Real Time Popularity Meter, his efforts were not successful with the meters tanking whenever McCain talked about the bill and soaring when Giuliani and Romney bashed the bill. Still, McCain had a good night.

T-4. Mike Huckabee (Arkansas)
For some strange reason Huckabee got the lest amount of camera time in the debate. However whenever he got his face on the scene, he looked very impressive. He did a much better job than Brownback in explaining his answer to the yes-no evolution question asked in the first MSNBC debate. Huckabee started his answer saying how absurd of a question that was to be asked in a Presidential debate. He then gave an answer only a southern baptist minister could have, that undoubtedly gave Conservative Christians pride in a candidate.




T-4. Fred Thompson (Washington DC - Virgina)
We had to have some where for Fred to fall to. Since no one else lost ground Thompson fell to a tie for fourth with Mike Huckabee. CNN was easy to point out that Fred Thompson is not jumping in, but rather throwing bombs from the outside where he can't be hit back.





6. Duncan Hunter (California)
WOW, Duncan Hunter jumped out of the water tonight. He stole the show from the rest of the "second tier". Hunter looked overly impressive and got that much needed life we talked about just a few days ago. The only question is "Did he pay CNN?" if he didn't he should. He by far got the most camera time out of the "second tier" candidates and he made the most of. With the two biggest topics of the night, Immigration and National Security (including Iraq) Hunter got frequent chances to answer softballs tossed right over the plate and hit each one out of the park. He had an awesome night, now lets see if he can keep this liveliness up.


7. Sam Brownback (Kansas)
It was a good night for Brownback. He didn't lose any ground with the exception of Duncan Hunters impressive night. Brownback's biggest stand came when he said the party cannot nominate a pro-choice candidate, the comment was directed towards Rudy Giuliani, but when Wolf Blitzer asked Brownback if he would support Giuliani as the nominee, Brownback reluctantly answered yes.





8. Ron Paul (Texas)
Paul did not look as impressive as in pass debates. He still held strong though, but with CNN making a large part of their night on Iraq it didn't give Ron much of a chance to make people see he is not that far from the Republican party outside of Iraq, which is something Ron Paul has to start to do.






9. Tommy Thompson (Wisconsin)
Tommy actually looked pretty good on stage for once. He really impressed in the town hall sit-down session. His strong point, Health care, finally got a chance to come out in the debate. He looked like a totally different person when he talked about health prevention and health care. He needed the small bump he got tonight. Only time will tell how much it helped him.





10. Jim Gilmore (Virgina)
Bad news Gilmore supporters, Jim Gilmore was still Jim Gilmore. It was the same old, same old and that's what lands him in his same old 10th position. He did get more airtime than he did in either of the last two debates, but unlike Duncan Hunter he did not work it to his advantage. The days are growing short for Jim Gilmore.





11. Tom Tancredo (Colorado)
Tancredo was really the only candidate who truly had a BAD night. He didn't do hardly anything right and his credibility has definitely dropped significantly. He can especially kiss good bye to any votes from Bush supporters, which will probably do in any chances he ever had.






The next update will come two weekends from now. (Either the 16th or the 17th) Until then we look forward on keeping you up to date on the latest in the Republican Race for 2008.

Republican Rankings - June 3, 2007

Well as promised the first set of Campaign Rankings of the Republican field is being published today. And just to keep you from wondering, they will be updated every other week and the day after each debate (so the next update will be after Tuesdays debate and then again on the 16th).
Since all signs lean towards Fred Thompson joining the race we will add him to the rankings until he says otherwise, we have reason to believe that Newt Gingrich will not enter the race and until he makes an announcement or something leads us to believe otherwise we will not be ranking him.

Now for the good stuff...

1. Rudy Giuliani (New York)
Rudy's campaign has no signs of slowing down anytime soon, he has achieved much more in the start of this campaign than any of the other "big three". While he did not raise as much money as Mitt Romney, he still dominates the field among candidates who actually have either an Exploratory Committee or an actual Presidential Campaign. Rudy is also the only current Republican who is shown in national polls as beating both Hilary Clinton and Barak Obama in head to head polls. As with every other campaign the first real test of his campaign real come in the August Straw Poll in Iowa, that is where the results of the debates will really be seen.

2. Fred Thompson (Virginia / Washington DC)[formerly of Tennessee]
Yes, he's already in second and he doesn't even have an Exploratory Committee yet. Last Wednesday he asked to be released from his contract with Law & Order (a Dick Wolf television series on NBC). Thompson is a big threat to everyone below this point. He is a conservative and always has been and has the record to back it up. Take a look at his U.S. Senate record on the issues by clicking here. Although you will never hear them say it Mike Huckabee, Ron Paul, and Sam Brownback who all claim to be the true conservative of the race, are not looking forward to the addition of Fred Thompson. And for that matter neither is Mitt Romeny, Thompson is said to have an unbelievable number potential campaign funders.

3. Mitt Romney (Massachusetts)
Romney's campaign has been pretty silent as of the last week and a half and he is said to be preparing for Tuesdays Republican debate in New Hampshire. His silence though has seemingly brought on a political attack on Romney. Bill Keller, an evangelist from Florida, said "if you vote for Mitt Romney, you are voting for Satan!" in an e-mail newsletter sent to over 2.4 million subscribers. (we will publish more on this story as it develops) The statements have already brought out questions from journalist and political strategist debating rather Romney should openly speak about his faith and just how religious he really is. This could turn in to a big problem for "Team Mitt" if his staff does not handle this in the right way, and they should consider it fair game to come up in Tuesday's debate since Wolf Blitzer will be moderating the event.

4. Mike Huckabee (Arkansas)
Huckabee's campaign has been picking up more speed than Bill Clinton chasing an Intern around the Oval Office! (man, I still can't come up with a line as good as Mike's!) The Edward's joke has really given a boast to his campaign, not that it made him a better candidate, but Republicans across the nation really started to take notice of him since that remark on congress' spending. Huckabee also launched his official national grassroots campaign this week called Team Huckabee which he says will "set [his] campaign apart from the rest". His campaign also smashed a goal set to raise 400 contributions in 96 hours, a plan derived from the John Edwards haircut joke, they brought in 608 contributions in the 4 day span. If Huckabee has another strong debate this Tuesday expect the talk of him moving into the "top tier".

5. John McCain (Arizona)
What happened to John McCain? Eight more years of Washington didn't help the Straight Talk Express. McCain's campaign seems to continue to spiral downward and the Immigration reform bill that he is pushing is the big gorilla on his back in Iowa and everywhere else he goes. While he might not be having as hard a time with his fellow senators in Washington, his fellow candidates in Iowa are making an example of how Washington has changed him and he is not standing up for what he truly believes in. When a candidate like Tom Tancredo gets a leg up on you on an issue of such importance, like he has with immigration it is time to either reconsider backing the bill or reconsider your campaign strategy. If the McCain camp does not fix the problem in the debate the Straight Talk Express will likely run out of gas.

6. Ron Paul (Texas)
While some thought he was through after he did not deny remarks that he thought America's Foreign Policy brought on the September 11th Attacks, Ron Paul has actually seemed to be getting more attention as a CREDIBLE candidate. Last week he appeared on Real Time with Bill Maher and rubbed elbows with Maher, who is the poster boy for everything ANTI-Republican. While some say that any publicity is good publicity, this could come back and bite him in the rear if another candidate will come out and use it against him. Paul seems to have a small, but very loyal base. The problem is his base is not anywhere near the Republican base. And while his supporters will go and vote in online polls and text message votes, a large question is will his young supporters, many of whom are likely not registered to vote, go out and take the time to vote for him in a straw poll, caucus, or primary. If Ron Paul does not do something to please the Republican base he will not stand a chance, no matter how loyal his supporters are.

7. Sam Brownback (Kansas)
Brownback got a bit of a leg up on two of his opponents by explaining his beliefs of evolution, an issue that has been troubling many voters when three candidates (Brownback, Huckabee, and Tancredo) raised their hands after being asked if they did not believe in evolution. The candidates were never given a chance to explain their beliefs in the debate and Brownback is the first to openly come out to the press and explain his beliefs. Brownback also opened his Iowa Headquarters two weeks ago. Other than that his biggest achievement was winning a Straw Poll in Grundy County, Iowa with a whopping population of 12,000 people. Now for those of you like me, who are not familiar with Grundy County, I am told it's close to Waterloo, and for those of you like me who do not know where Waterloo is, I am told it is some where in Iowa. Grundy County is 99% White and that probably explains Brownback's success!

8. Tom Tancredo (Colorado)
Tom Tancredo is a single issue candidate if there ever was one. If you think his picture is silly, you should check out his campaign. Tancredo is the only person I have ever known who can take a question on abortion and give an answer on immigration and have it actually make a little bit of sense. He does have some good ideas that could work for immigration and would definitely be supported by Republican voters, the problem is he doesn't have any descent ideas on any other issue and it has made him look like some what of fool in this race. However he is getting more airtime for immigration and trying to make it into the most important issue we face, which it is not. His campaign will likely be over by Super Tuesday next February, if not sooner.

9. Duncan Hunter (California)
Duncan Hunter is the lowest ligament candidate who has the slightest chance to make a move. His campaign has been pretty poor so far, both figuratively and literally. Two less than mediocre debates and no money or big media coverage has led Duncan Hunter into the ninth spot, behind Tom Tancredo. If he doesn't do something soon to revive his dying campaign, he will not make it into 2008.





10. Jim Gilmore (Virginia)
Jim Gilmore needs to get off the big boys playground and stay in Virginia. His campaign has a very weak strategy. Attack the big name candidates, he has went after "Rudy McRomney" many times, but in the South Carolina debate he was made a fool of when his attacks on Giuliani, Huckabee, and Romney all blew back in his face with the candidates each setting the record straight. And even though he continues to attack the big name candidates he still is not registering in any big polls, national or local. If telling lies about other candidates is all Gilmore can do, he needs to go on back to Virgina and get out of the race.



11. Tommy Thompson (Wisconsin)
Tommy Thompson is running one of the worse campaigns in Presidential history. He has done nothing. NO jabs at the top tier or anyone else for that matter. Absolutely NO media coverage. And NO mention of any plans for change in Washington.
All he does in the debates is relate whatever the question is to the state of Wisconsin. He might have been a good governor in Wisconsin and from what it seems he loves it to death, so my advise to Tommy Thompson is pack it up and go back to Wisconsin and eat some cheese.
His only chance at getting a vote would be if some one mistakes him for Fred Thompson, in which case I guess he might have a chance in Florida.


That's the field as of right now. The Rankings will be updated a day or two after Tuesday's debate in New Hampshire (we may have an interview or two after the debates, and those will take priority over the rankings). As always feel free to leave comments and your thoughts of the Ranking and the candidates.